Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.366404 0.418464 0.474995 0.540904 0.615602 0.697599 0.794401
2025-08-24 0.288231 0.356605 0.436643 0.537112 0.659730 0.804388 0.987896
2025-08-31 0.229982 0.306196 0.401747 0.530029 0.697441 0.908187 1.193330
2025-09-07 0.193946 0.276488 0.386782 0.544359 0.763091 1.055311 1.474651
2025-09-14 0.155424 0.236495 0.351592 0.526008 0.782619 1.145125 1.694764
2025-09-21 0.128902 0.208548 0.328238 0.519888 0.817549 1.260383 1.966862
2025-09-28 0.107105 0.183675 0.305109 0.509926 0.844655 1.367363 2.241833
2025-10-05 0.095044 0.172043 0.300396 0.527520 0.916489 1.551462 2.660843
2025-10-12 0.082039 0.156434 0.286525 0.527545 0.959165 1.694144 3.032195
2025-10-19 0.072293 0.144820 0.277512 0.534234 1.013678 1.863022 3.469897
2025-10-26 0.065015 0.136477 0.272937 0.547962 1.082271 2.064569 3.991074
2025-11-02 0.055258 0.121506 0.253486 0.530439 1.089822 2.156355 4.323128
2025-11-09 0.045768 0.105630 0.230263 0.502985 1.076429 2.211625 4.603133
2025-11-16 0.039485 0.095454 0.216993 0.493777 1.098432 2.338779 5.043018
2025-11-23 0.034067 0.086177 0.204085 0.483241 1.116127 2.459899 5.488379
2025-11-30 0.030901 0.081578 0.200759 0.493401 1.180269 2.686271 6.186700
2025-12-07 0.026343 0.072653 0.185948 0.474664 1.176634 2.766717 6.579795
2025-12-14 0.023129 0.066513 0.176719 0.467664 1.199123 2.907897 7.128299
2025-12-21 0.020217 0.060575 0.166945 0.457640 1.212715 3.030404 7.650336
2025-12-28 0.018836 0.058601 0.166999 0.472723 1.290770 3.314446 8.593282
2026-01-04 0.016951 0.054785 0.161497 0.472192 1.328774 3.506591 9.337492
2026-01-11 0.015517 0.052025 0.158423 0.477798 1.383864 3.748500 10.238818
2026-01-18 0.014451 0.050187 0.157661 0.489825 1.458279 4.049506 11.331940